The world situation, the fall of Cristina and the new government

Omer Celik, one of the most important spokesmen of the Turkish Justice and Development Party -the AKP of Erdogan- has just declared that his government is determined to provide all kind of support to the Turkmen of Syria "giving them the moral and material security that they need to face their enemies".

Turkmen militias act between Jarablus y Kobane in order to prevent Kurdish guerrillas from unifying the cantons of Rojaba, avoiding any possibility of communication by land between the ISIS troops and their Turkish leaders.

In that place the Turkish batteries shot down a Russian airplane for "violating airspace for 17 seconds". One of the pilots was rescued by Russian helicopters, while the other was murdered by the Turkmen, who shot him while he was falling in a parachute.

The main NATO spokesman, Jens Stoltenberg,immediately after the fall of the Russian bomber,  declared that "we support Turkey and the territorial integrity of our Turkish ally".

Why did they speak about territorial integrity when this matter has not been mentioned by anybody in the middle of the current Russian-Turkish tensions? What does this have to do with the Russian plane shot down? Apparently, nothing; however, actually it has a lot to do with the Kurds.

The guerrillas of that nationality -the biggest in the world without an own state- have taken advantage of the crisis of the national states of the Middle East and the divisions in the imperial heights to gain ground in  the border region between Syria and Turkey , building their autonomous cantons.

This new regime, the "Democratic Confederalism" is creating a dynamic that is threatening Erdogan's power, as millions of Kurds are turning into the engine of the worker and popular rebellion inside Turkey, where more than 20 million Kurds live.

An example of this are  the events of Silvan, in Diyarbakir, where thousands of people in the streets expelled Erdogan's army, organizing in this way the first great popular rebellion of the Turkish southeast or north Kurdistan.

Beyond the reforming policies of their leaders, as PPK and HDP,after defeating ISIS in Kobane the Kurds turned into one of the vanguard detachment of the revolutionary process within Syria, Iraq,Turkey, Palestine, Yemen, and is menacing to exploit in Iran.

 Third World War?

All this happens in the context of what several analysts have called "Third World War", as the fights between the world powers -that are outsourced through "insurgent"or "terrorist"forces- have done a leap in quality with the shot down of Russian planes and the suicide attacks in Paris, Lebanon and Ankara.

For that, the USA support the Kurds and the "free"Syrian army; Russia upholds Bashar; Erdogan gives weapons to the Turkmen, ISIS and Barzani; Israel do the same with Al Qaeda; Iran fights from Lebanon against Hezbollah; France, that used to support some factions of FSA, now is willing to sustain Bashar...

In the context of  the terrible weakness and crisis of the yankee imperialism,everyone is fighting to control a strategic territory, not only for the petrol, but because from there one of the most important gas pipes makes its way to Europe, a continent that does not produce this vital supply.

This Third World War is not happening through direct collisions between the major imperialist countries, which are limited due to the lack of mass support, but also because they are threatening themselves with the atomic weapons that can destroy each other.

These struggles cause similar situations as those of the old wars, like the insurrection that led the Bolsheviks to the power of Russia in 1917. The Rojava revolution is the ratification of this perspective.

The Kurdish people can continue taking advantage of this situation, as the terrible fight between all their enemies allow them to spread their "autonomy", and they could now have the logistical support  of Russia, a country that, to strike back the Turkish, would be able to give the Kurds weapons and resources.

Divisions and realignments.

The meeting between Putin and Hollande to "collaborate" against ISIS is the product of this situation that divides, weakens and realigns forces. The same situation that caused the rise of the tensions between the USA, France and Belgium owing to disagreements in relation to the policies towards the refugees.

Obama agrees with Erdogan in the necessity of getting rid of thousands of these, compelling them to emigrate to Europe; a tactic that is also useful to the Turkey's president as a trading chart of his promised entrance as an effective member of the European Union.

On the other hand, Hollande and the Belgian are doing the best of themselves to avoid the entrance of new groups of Syrian and Iraqi inmigrants. The attack to Paris was an event that was functional to this policy... hence the complete "inefectiveness"of the French Secret Services.

Putin agrees in one point with France, reason why he holds a position a bit "harder", as the Russians fear that the influence of ISIS could spread and strengthen within the former URSS Muslim populated regions, as Chechnya, a place from where several ISIS combatants come from.

The Turks have a similar problem, but of opposite sign, as the Rojava revolution has entered inside, pushing the worker's rise, and the social explosions in the Southeast, as the rebellion of the people of Silvan and other cities where popular assemblies and militias are appearing.

  

Crisis, polarization and radicalization.

The imperialists are fighting to keep Syria and Iraq, deepening their divisions, a situation that gets worse the economic situation, destabilizes these countries and causes the radicalization of the worker movement worldwide.

This dynamic pushes the left shift of several sectors, a process that showed itself -between other examples- in the defeat of the Conservative wing  of the English Labour Party, the return to power of the alliance between socialists and comunists in Portugal after 40 years of rightist governments and the new general strikes in Greece.

The intensification of repressive policies or the creation of fascist bands -as ISIS, the yankee civil patrols that guard the Mexico border, the Ukrainian nazis or the Mexican parapolice- are a response , still defensive, to face this revolutionary process.

This "hard" line is combined with counterrevolutionary agreements between the World Powers, the Church and the national governments, as the Obama's and Iran 5+1, the agreements between the yankees, Castro and the Pope or the present conversations in Vienna, that tend to guarantee a "transitional"way out in Syria.

These policies have been failing due to the incredible revolutionary situation that the world is suffering, to the combination between the biggest economic crisis in the capitalist's history, to the lack of an imperialist "single command", to the rise of the struggles and the deep divisions between the representatives of tbe bourgeoisie.

This reality, that enables the growth of the revolutionaries, has given several leaps after the Lehman Brothers's fall in 2008, with the general strikes in Europe, the Zionist defeat in the Gaza Strip and the kurdish triumphs in Kobane, Tal Abyad and Shengal.

The crisis arrived to Argentina.

The global collapse is causing expansive waves that are hitting our country, sinking it in a great economic crisis, caused by the fall of the commodities'international prices and the closure of the markets of China and Brazil.

This situation, together with the great debt, the lack of industrialization of the productive apparatus, the weakness of the social control mechanism- union bureaucracy,political parties, etc.-and the worker's rise put and end to Cristina.

The majority of the workers and the people voted a faction of the opposition right wing, to punish the right government that have ruled the country for more than ten years, encouraging the explosion of harsh clashes within the kirchnerismo.

The electoral defeat of the kirchnerismo is the product  -distorted- of the rise of the proletarian struggles but also of the rupture of a part of the bourgeoisie with the K, situation that push the construction of a new type of government.

This employers faction -that supports the very "half-colonial model"- ousted the representants of the bougeois sectors that led the state apparatus, imposing their own representatives in the ministries, secretaries and other areas of the new management headed by Macri.

The new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Prat Gay, represents the Bank Morgan and other international financial entities; the one of Energy, Aranguren, does the same with Shell. Rabbi Bergman is an agent of the Zionist faction that is ruling Israel.

As Agriculture Minister, the former president of Confederaciones Rurales, Ricardo Buryaile, represents that agricultural sector; the new Minister of International Relations, Susana Malcorra, comes from Telecom and the Head of Transport area is related to the contractors that took a profit from the construction of the Metrobus and other undertakings.

The Minister of Science and Technology, Lino Barañao, who will continue in the position he had during Nestor and Cristina's governments, represents their continuity, as he will go on defending the interests of some of the monopolies that used to support the Kirchners, as the toxic agrochemical supplier Monsanto.

We will also have to study Moyano's movements, who, according to some journalists, came very close to imposing his own people in the Ministry of Labour. The designation of Triaca, the son of a bureaucrat coming from the Plastic Union- an union that has never been close to Moyano-is a contradictory fact with this possibility, that still remains open.

First crisis of Cambiemos.

The frictions inter-bourgeoises have already had their expression within the new government with the abrupt break -"for personal reasons"- of one of the creators of Cambiemos, Ernesto Sanz, of the UCR, who could have been proposed by Techint to occupy the Chief of Cabinet.

The Macri family, that runs SOCMA and competes for the adjudication of public works with Sanz's sponsor, might have banned that possibility.  Another reason could be the "peronizacion"of Macri and Vidal, who might be trying to make deals with political and union leaders of the PJ to guarantee the "governability".

Far away from this, Macri and Michetti's government was born very weak, because it has a 50% of the population that had voted against them and very few votes in favour: the majority who chose them did not vote them but against Cristina!

The new government will be weaker than the previous one becuse it will not have the "tailwind "of the high international soya prices and it will immediately have to make an adjustment, situation that will provoke an increase in the worker's struggles, that will face it with hardness.

The union bureaucracy's lack of authority and the frictions between the owners of the power- both ruling and opponent- will help the workers to gain confidence, to radicalize and to quickly assume the possibility of defeat their class enemies.

The left wing will have the possibility of gaining influence only if they set themselves at the height of the circumstances , raising a programme useful to build the General Strike and the Argentinazo necessary for finishing with the adjustment and the new adjusters.

The struggle of the workers of Cresta Roja could become into a step that in the future will make the way for the future confrontations. What will happen there will be very important for the wage battles that will take place after the opening labour negotiations in March, as the one of the teachers.

The figters must help to build a favourable scene for the devolpment of these conflicts concentrating our efforts and  militancy in the task of ensuring the solidarity with the workers of Cresta Roja, assuming that if they win all those who fight will also win!

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