Analysis: "Olive Branch Operation" completed its second week

TSK soldiers making "grey wolves" gesture. GW are fascist
militants related to MHP Party, the allied of AKP

Most of the first week of operation was weak because bad weather conditions. But then, when it changed, turkish soldiers - TSK - and gangs of FSA began to progress supported by air plane attacks. In this context, significant breaches were opened on the frontlines of the defense surrounding Afrin. In this process the losses of the TSK were quite small, but it is expected to rise. Turkish media spoke about civilian casualties by rocket attacks of YPG to the border towns of the country.

Independent analysts estimate that the TSK and the FSA will move forward step by step in the Afrin countryside in the coming days and weeks. Our comrades of SEP - Workers Socialist Party of Turkey - said “that it's very clear that operation will take months. If the conflict reaches the Afrin city center, much blood will flow in a mutual manner, the city will be destroyed and a great human drama will be experienced”.

SEP comrades said besides, that “Afrin which is autochthonic hometown of Kurds will be going to be destroyed while big powers only watch it. It is not surprising for us - as Marxists - on the contrary, we warned YPG about this sell out. USA did not turn a hair for Afrin. Russians allow Erdogan to attack. Also EU didnt say anything. This is imperialist hypocracy.”

“At this point we can say that YPG is unilaterally engaged to the US and fails to carry out balance politics. Afrin was very open to the attack and it might make sense to keep balance politics against Russia and Assad for this. It resembles the same mistake of Barzani. Trusting to much to USA-EU and making everyone your enemy at the same time.”

The possibility of Syrian Army's entry to Afrin by the call of YPG can change the military and diplomatic balances. It is alleged that negotiations between Damascus and Afrin were carried out on this issue. But, in spite of that alleged negotiarions, YPG is now alone in Afrin and has to stop the TSK - the bigger enemy - with its only forces and claiming for the international solidarity.

Comrades of SEP add to its analysis, that “It is true that if TSK capture Afrin they'll want to stay there for a long period. Erdogan plans to attack Menbij after Afrin so he will get a wide territory in northern Syria. It is possible for US to sell out Kurds in Menbij too. It is not an exaggeration to think a big demographic change in Afrin if FSA stay there in long term.”

But, the question related to this topic is: Has YPG reasons to collaborate Assad? It is true that Erdogan dreams to unite Afrin, Al Bab and Idlib. So Assad army rushes to advance in İdlib. There was a new development related to this. For the first time a Russian aircraft was shot by a manpad missile by Islamists. So it is a sign that the fight in Idlib and Afrin will be very difficult because the answer of the question "who gives this manpad to El Nusra?" is very crucial… If it is thought that Turkey has given it it can changes many things.

Lastly, SEP comrades said, that “AKP government is making a great effort to blow up a chauvinist atmosphere in Turkey. The press which is in the hands of AKP make propaganda of "holy conquest". Kurdish HDP is all suppressed. Main opposition party CHP is under heavy attack. CHP leadership felt that they have to support Afrin invasion. The socialists are also under attack. Some Stalinists (communist party) supported indirectly the operation, and some groups are silent (for ex DİP-PO) but many socialist groups acted bravely. More then 300 people were taken to prison because of their anti-war sharings in social media. Some of them were released conditionally but some are still in prison. The pressure over democratic rights are under strict pressure.”

Its obviuous that Erdogan's plan is to divert people nationalist sentiments to the election process of 2019. But, there is a big problem, because Its not sure a war fast victory. This is the motive because of Erdogan and his friends are analysing the possibility of overtaking elections, calling it to 2018. In spite of that, the first goal of revolutionaries parties all around the world is organize all kind of actions of solidarity with kurdish people of Afrin, in order to defeat invaders.

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